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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The euro zone is expected to achieve further growth, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 30". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major futures indexes rose and fell in unison, with Dow futures rising 0.01%, S&P 500 futures falling 0.15%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.26%. European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.24%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.18%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.13%, the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.22%, the Spanish IBEX35 index fell 0.09%, and the Italian FTSE MIB index rose 0.46%.
2. Market news interpretation
The euro zone is expected to achieve further growth
⑴ On April 30, Morningstar's MichaelField pointed out in the report that the euro zone's GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter, showing a stable growth trend.
⑵ Field believes that low borrowing costs will continue to drive economic growth in the euro zone. The key interest rate of the ECB is currently at 2.5%, and is expected to be further relaxed in the future.
⑶ However, Field warned that the risk of escalating tariff conflicts with the United States is a "terrible dark cloud on the horizon" that could pose a threat to the eurozone economy.
Spain maintains its economic growth expectations, with GDP expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025
⑴ On April 30, 2025, Spanish Minister of Economic Affairs Carlos Cuerpo said that despite the turbulent global trade situation, the Spanish government still maintains economic growth expectations in 2025 and 2026.
⑵Spanish government pre-The economy will grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.
⑶Spain is one of the best-performing economies in Europe, and the proportion of public debt to GDP is expected to drop to 101.7% in 2025, down from 101.8% in 2024.
The Swiss government proposes a referendum on relations with the EU
⑴ On April 30, the Swiss government proposed a referendum on a new agreement with the EU to win more support.
⑵ According to Swiss law, if 50,000 signatures are collected within 100 days, a referendum can be held, and citizens decide whether a vote is required.
⑶ This referendum requires only a simple majority, rather than a double majority (i.e., voters and a majority in the 26 Swiss states).
⑷ Switzerland and the EU announced a new agreement in December 2024 to reorganize the relationship between Bern and Brussels.
⑸ The agreement covers multiple areas from electricity to state aid, transportation and free movement of people, as well as Switzerland's fiscal contribution to the EU, providing more certainty for Swiss www.avatradescn.companies relying on the Alliance of 27 to conduct business.
⑹The Swiss government proposes to submit measures such as bilateral relations, food safety, electricity and health to a referendum.
⑺The Swiss government stressed that in view of the current global uncertainty, maintaining a stable relationship with the EU is strategically necessary for Switzerland.
Indian Treasury bond yield hit its biggest monthly decline in five years
⑴On April 30, India's Treasury bond yield fell sharply in April, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield hit its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, as the Bank of India adopted a super-loose policy of cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity through bond purchases.
⑵ The 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 6.3559% on Wednesday, up slightly from 6.3419% in the previous trading day.
⑶ April yield fell by 22 basis points and 15 basis points in March.
⑷ Abhishek Upadhyay, chief economist at ICICI Securities, said that the Bank of India's turn to a loose stance and continued injecting liquidity has driven the bond market to rise.
⑸ The RBRC purchased bonds worth Rs 1.2 trillion (approximately US$14.19 billion) in April and announced a purchase plan for Rs 1.25 trillion in May before the final planned debt purchase was www.avatradescn.completed.
⑹The RBI purchased Rs 2.45 trillion in bonds through open market operations from January to March.
⑺The Bank of India cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time earlier this month and adjusted its monetary policy stance from "neutral" to "loose".
⑻The moderate inflation outlook also increases market expectations that the central bank's interest rate cut cycle may be deeper than expected.
⑼ However, geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan are originally bullishThe market adds caution.
The Ukrainian mineral agreement is expected to be signed as early as today
On April 30, local time, a reporter from the Taiwan Taiwan learned that Ukraine's first deputy prime minister and minister of economy Yulia Sveridenko is discussing the final technical details with the United States on the mineral resource agreement in Washington, the United States. The two sides may sign an agreement as early as April 30.
The Bank of Thailand cut interest rates, facing U.S. tariff threats, and the economy may decline
⑴ On April 30, the Bank of Thailand cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time, lowering key interest rates to 1.75% to support an economy facing U.S. tariff pressure.
⑵The Bank of Thailand lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% in February to 2.0%. If trade conflict escalates, growth may further drop to 1.3%.
⑶ The Bank of Thailand expects economic growth to be 1.8% in the baseline scenario in 2026 and may be as low as 1.0% in the worst case.
⑷ Assistant Governor of the Bank of Thailand Sakkapop Panyanukul said there is still room for monetary policy to support the economy, but there is limited space.
⑸ The Bank of Thailand lowered its inflation expectations in 2025 from 1.1% to 0.5%, below the target range of 1%-3%, and lowered its core inflation expectations from 1.0% to 0.9%.
⑹The Bank of Thailand also lowered its export growth forecast from 2.7% to 0.8%, and lowered its foreign tourists forecast from 39.5 million to 37.5 million.
⑺Economist Miguel Chanco believes that the rate cut may be the last in the near term, as the Monetary Policy www.avatradescn.committee may take a wait-and-see attitude when tariff uncertainty persists.
Tariff headwinds and negative negative impacts on OPEC+ production increase, and the outlook for oil prices is worrying
⑴On April 30, a Reuters survey showed that the trade dispute cast a shadow on the demand outlook, and OPEC+'s decision to loosen supply will put pressure on oil prices this year.
⑵ Reuters' survey of 40 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is $68.98 per barrel, lower than the March survey's forecast of $72.94; the average price of U.S. crude oil is expected to be $65.08 per barrel, lower than the forecast of $69.16 last month.
⑶Ole Hansen, head of www.avatradescn.commodity strategy at Saxo Bank Denmark, said concerns about the slowdown and rising OPEC+ output, as well as the damage to the output of sanctions prospects and low oil prices to high-cost producers, will have a double blow to crude oil prices.
⑷ Reuters survey shows that analysts currently expect crude oil demand to grow by an average of 860,000 barrels per day this year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand growth forecast to 730,000 barrels per day this month, and OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast, and currently expects crude oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025.
⑸ If OPEC+ accelerates as plannedIncreased production will also drag down oil prices. Sources said several OPEC+ member states will meet on May 5 and recommend that the organization accelerate production growth for the second consecutive month in June.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1383, a drop of 0.03%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro against the dollar price fell on the last trading day and remained below the key resistance of 1.1420, which limited its short-term sideways trading. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) showed positive overlapping signals after reaching oversold levels, which could drive a potential bullish rebound to the above resistance.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3364, a drop of 0.33%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, GBPUSD price experienced a calm downward in the last trading of the intraday level due to the stability of the key resistance of 1.3420, and the main overview remains inclined to be positive, especially with the price stabilization above the EMA50, which strengthens the opportunity for a bullish rebound at any time, trying to gain positive momentum that could help break through this resistance.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3283.86, a drop of 1.00%. Before New York, gold prices fell on its last trading day to break the slight bullish bias in the short term, adding to negative pressure on its upcoming trading, especially with the emergence of negative signals (RSI) that continue to exist as its trading is below EMA50.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 32.224, a drop of 2.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices fell sharply in the last trading day, breaking through the key support of $32.70 and surpassing the support of EMA50, which in addition to negative signals on (RSI), also brought negative pressure.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 59.870, a drop of 0.94%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices rose on the last trading day, trying to recover previous losses and get rid of the obvious oversold situation on (RSI), with a sharp bearish short-termThe city wave dominates.
4. Institutional View
Deshang Bank: The momentum of economic growth in the euro zone may be fleeting
Deshang Bank economist Vincent Stamer said that the obvious impressive growth of the euro zone economy in early 2025 is unlikely to continue. Data released on Wednesday showed that the euro zone's 20 countries' overall GDP grew by 0.4% in the first three months of this year, up from 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. But one-time factors such as Ireland's gross domestic product (GDP) growing dramatically due to tariffs in the pharmaceutical industry, and the potential for future production declines, such as one-time factors that could result in a sharp decline in stocks, mean the eurozone is unlikely to maintain this rate of growth in the www.avatradescn.coming quarters. U.S. tariffs will put pressure on exports. Overall, we expect the eurozone economy to grow at only 0.7% annually in 2025.
Institutions: Tariff uncertainty + the risks facing economic growth will make the Bank of Japan temporarily unmoved
IG Group said that the lack of progress in US-Japan trade negotiations continues to cast a shadow on Japan's economic outlook and www.avatradescn.complicates the Bank of Japan's policy path to normalizing. Policymakers may remain silent in the event of tariff uncertainty and economic growth risks. The latest economic forecast will be the focus. The GDP growth rate expected this year may be lowered due to the risks faced by Japan's export-dependent economy. Meanwhile, rising potential inflationary pressures over the past few months may bring upside risks to the Bank of Japan's inflation outlook. However, wage growth exceeds inflation may bring confidence to further tightening policies.
The above content is about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The euro zone is expected to achieve further growth. Analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 30" was carefully www.avatradescn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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