The US index is volatile and is waiting for the test of data, and negative news may exacerbate downside risks

Asian Handicap Market Review

On Tuesday, supported by the hope of the US trade agreement, the US dollar index fluctuated higher and returned to above the 99 mark. As of now, the US dollar price is 99.23.

Tariffs-

Trump relaxes auto tariff policies to mitigate the impact on local automakers.

U.S. www.avatradescn.commerce Secretary: A trade agreement has been reached with an anonymous country. People familiar with the matter: Trump plans to use AI chips as a new bargaining chip in trade negotiations.

US media: The United States said that Europe has not participated well in the tariff issue.

Walmart notifies Chinese suppliers to resume shipments.

The White House criticized Amazon for displaying tariff prices, calling it "hostile political act."

Russia-Ukraine-

Ukraine-Ukraine: It is necessary for specific proposals to be provided by Russia and Ukraine. If there is no progress, it will withdraw from mediation.

Putin is reported to demand control of four regions in Ukraine during talks with the United States.

Data-

The number of job openings in the United States fell to its lowest level since September last year, consumer confidence in the U.S. Chamber of www.avatradescn.commerce plummeted to a nearly five-year low in April, and the U.S. www.avatradescn.commodity trade deficit in March widened to a record 1,620$100 million.

The Canadian ruling Liberal Party won the election, but did not win a majority in the House of Representatives and would form a minority government. Canadian Prime Minister Carney and US President Trump will meet in Mandarin in the near future.

Summary of institutional views

Analyst Patricio Martín: Can the Japanese and Japanese bears break below 142?

On Tuesday, the US dollar fluctuated around the 142.00 level. The dollar was under pressure due to weaker than expected job data in the US JOLTS and a sharp decline in consumer confidence index. The pair stabilized after a brief decline and rebounded a certain amount. However, the gains remain limited due to the continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade talks.

The World Federation of Large Enterprises' Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 86.0 in April, hitting a new low in the past five years, lower than the expected value of 87.5 and 93.9 last month, further highlighting economic weakness. This slip reflects that the pessimism among American consumers is continuing to heat up.

At the same time, the strength of the yen was weakened as investors expected Japan to release weak economic data and the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations were about to start. Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, said the market generally believes that the Bank of Japan will maintain its existing monetary policy, which makes the yen susceptible to external factors and policy inaction. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday.

From the technical perspective, the US dollar fluctuates around 142.00 and is still within the range of 141.96 to 142.76. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.03 shows neutrality, the index smoothing similarity moving average (MACD) releases a potential buy signal. However, the overall trend is relatively bearish, with the 20-day simple moving average (144.03), the 100-day simple moving average (151.16) and the 200-day simple moving average (149.95) all showing selling pressure www.avatradescn.com. In addition, the 10-day exponential moving average (142.80) and the 30-day exponential moving average (145.13) also release sell signals. The instant support level is about 142.26, while the resistance level is concentrated at 142.80-142.87 and 144.02.

Goldman Sachs looks forward to the US non-farm data for April: There is a dual effect on the impact of potential seasonal distortions

Non-farm population: 140,000; unemployment rate: 4.2%; hourly wage monthly rate: 0.25%

We expect the number of non-farm employment to increase by 140,000 in April. On the positive side, big data indicators show that although the speed of employment creation has slowed down, it still maintains moderate growth. But the downside is that we expect the employment of government departments to remain flat, reflecting a 15,000 reduction in federal employment (15,000 yuan in state and local government departments have been eliminated.

We believe there is a dual effect on the impact of potential seasonal distortions: While non-farm employment growth usually accelerates when the Easter holiday falls in late April, uncertainty may cause a disproportionate drag on employment growth in months with particularly high total hiring volumes (such as April).

We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% after rounding. Average hourly wage: We expect a 0.25% increase from the previous month (seasonally adjusted), reflecting the impact of the negative calendar effect.

Danske Bank looks forward to US non-farm data in April: employment growth will slow down, and there will be a natural pullback after strong recruitment

Non-farm population: 125,000; unemployment rate: 4.2%; hourly wage monthly rate: 0.3%

The economic data agenda this week is about to appear intensively, while Federal Reserve officials enter a silent period before the FOMC meeting on May 7. It is certain that the April non-farm report will become the main basis for market participants to judge the policy tone of the Federal Reserve's May meeting. Regarding this employment report, our forecasts for non-farm employment (predicted to increase by 125,000, up 228,000) and private sector employment (predicted to increase by 125,000, up 209,000) reflect a natural pullback after strong recruitment in March—especially the decline in employment demand in the leisure and retail sectors.

It should be noted that due to changes in Easter holidays every year, school spring holidays and the impact of spring weather factors on early recruitment, the signals of non-farm employment data from March to April are often disturbed. Although employment growth is expected to slow, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

Other details about employment reports, although we expect average hourly wages (predicted 0.3% growth and previous value to increase 0.3% growth) will remain stable, the average weekly working hours (predicted 34.1 hours, previous value to increase 34.2 hours) may drop slightly by 0.1 hours. The core conclusion of our employment forecast is that the annualized growth rate of the wage indicator, as a nominal income growth indicator, will rise by about 40 basis points to 4.8% - still at a solid level. However, given the imminent transmission of inflation caused by tariffs, the growth rate of real consumer spending is likely to slow significantly in the second half of the year.

Face Bank looks forward to US non-farm data in April: the month-on-month increase in average hourly wages will slow to...

Non-farm population: 150,000; unemployment rate: 4.2%; monthly hourly wage rate: 0.2%

Despite tariff-related uncertainty, the labor market has performed relatively well so far. We believe that another satisfactory report will be provided in April, but a slowdown is expected www.avatradescn.compared to March. Our initial expectations for non-farm farms are to increase by 150,000, down from the strong growth of 228,000 in March, but are still relatively stable with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. We also expect the month-on-month increase of average hourly wages to slow to 0.2%, but the year-on-year increase will stabilize at 3.8%.

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