The non-agricultural accident performance is strong, and the Federal Reserve is expected to sing a counter-tune with Trump again!

The concerns about trade tensions have been further eased over the past week, and despite a mixed set of economic data, the unexpectedly strong non-farm reports, which have also cooled down concerns about slowing economic growth.

U.S. stocks have recovered all losses since Trump's "Liberation Day" announced reciprocal tariffs in just two weeks. The S&P 500 index rose for nine consecutive days, setting the longest consecutive gains since 2004; the Dow Jones Industrial Average also recorded nine consecutive positives in the daily line, the longest consecutive gains since December 2023. As traders cut expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, and the yield curve flattened the bear market. The US dollar index staged a deep V reversal after the non-farm data was released, and finally closed above the 100 mark.

In terms of www.avatradescn.commodities, gold was under pressure due to rising market risk appetite and rising yields of US dollar and US bonds. It barely closed higher on Friday, but has fallen for two consecutive weeks, with the largest decline this week since the US election on November 15 last year. Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday and fell 8% this week, the biggest single-week drop since March. OPEC+ previously announced that it would advance the meeting to May 3 to discuss the June production plan. As of press time, the alliance has agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June.

The market's attention will turn to central bank interest rate decisions in the www.avatradescn.coming week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In terms of economic data, the service industry PMI in many countries around the world will be released. The U.S. stock financial report season will also continue to advance.

Forex Market:The US dollar index is expected to close for the second consecutive week, mainly due to the easing of market concerns about the global trade war, which closed near the 100 integer mark this week. In terms of non-US currencies, the euro and Australian dollar are affected by the decline in the US dollar.The US dollar recorded a positive line for the fourth consecutive month; the US-Month line of pound was positive for three consecutive days, the US-Sun-Moon line was negative for four consecutive days, and the US-A-A-Moon line was negative for three consecutive days.

Gold Market:Spot gold closed down for the second consecutive week due to factors such as the decline in risk aversion sentiment, the rise in the US dollar, and traders' profit liquidation before the Labor Day holiday, closing at $3,241 per ounce on Friday.

US market:International oil prices fell sharply this week. Throughout April, Brent crude, as a global benchmark, fell about 18% throughout the month because the U.S.-led trade war had an impact on economic growth and energy demand. This week, Saudi Arabia said it was unwilling to further cut supplies to support oil prices, and crude oil fell sharply, but after the fourth round of US-Iran negotiations were postponed, Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, and oil prices rebounded in a deep V.

Review this week

1. Economic policies impact the market: The golden age has literally www.avatradescn.come true, and the US stock market is hit hard.

When Trump took office for 100 days, the market turmoil caused by his radical economic policies has become the focus of the world. Data shows that the S&P 500 fell about 8% during the period, setting the worst start since Ford's presidency in 1974; the US dollar index fell 9%, approaching the historical low after the collapse of the gold standard in the 1970s; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared from 3.86% to 4.59%, the largest single-week increase since 2001. In sharp contrast, gold prices set a record 28 times, reaching a maximum of $3,500/https://www.avatradescn.comoz, global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year to 1,206 tons, the highest first quarter level since 2016.

Although Trump vigorously promoted tariff policies and immigration reform at the 100-day rally, his economic propositions are facing severe tests. In the first quarter, the U.S. GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.3%, ending the three-year growth momentum. In order to avoid tariffs, www.avatradescn.companies stockpiling goods in advance has become the main drag. The manufacturing PMI recorded the biggest contraction in five months, with both order and output indicators falling, and inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive month. The job market is also under pressure, with job vacancies falling to a nine-month low in March, and ADP added only 177,000 new jobs in April, significantly lower than expected 130,000.

2. Trade negotiations are deadlocked: the US-Japan standoff continues, and negotiations with China have variables

In the field of trade, the new round of tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and Japan ended ineffective. The US insists on not reducing tariffs on automobiles and steel, while Japan refuses toughly on the grounds of national interests. Japanese Finance Minister Katsushiro Kato hinted that holding U.S. debt could be used as a bargaining chip, but emphasized that it is necessary to evaluate carefully. At the same time, Trump once again expressed his willingness to negotiate with China, saying that "the chance is very high", but ChinaThe side reiterated its position of "fighting, accompanying to the end; talking, the door is open", and demanded that the US cancel unilateral tariffs.

It is worth noting that the signing of the US-Ukrainian mineral agreement is regarded as Trump’s 100-day diplomatic breakthrough. The agreement sets up a 50:50-ratio reconstruction investment fund, focusing on the development of strategic resources such as rare earths, but avoiding debt repayment disputes. Analysis pointed out that this move is intended to break China's monopoly on key minerals, but Ukrainian mineral reserve disputes and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continue to pose real obstacles.

3. Geopolitical game intensifies: The ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine is difficult to produce, and Iran's sanctions are escalated

On the issue of Russia and Ukraine, Putin proposed a short-term ceasefire on the premise of controlling the Donbass region, which has fundamental differences with the permanent truce advocated by Trump. Although the US has promoted the signing of the agreement, it has not promised security obligations, and Europe may assume more responsibilities. In the Middle East, the US-Iran negotiations originally scheduled to be postponed for some reason. Trump simultaneously escalated sanctions on Iran's oil, threatening to impose secondary sanctions. Iran emphasized that the position of lifting sanctions through diplomacy remains unchanged.

4. Domestic policy adjustments and market reactions: The tax cut dispute continues, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged.

The new tax reform plan promoted by Trump at the rally encountered internal resistance, and he threatened opponents to be eliminated by votes. Meanwhile, Musk gradually faded out of the White House's "Government Efficiency Department" daily operations, but retained his advisory status and plans to review the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. Despite Trump's repeated pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the non-farm data in April was unexpectedly strong, with 177,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, reducing the market's expectations for a rate cut this year from four to three.

5. Global economic linkage effect: Saudi Arabia's expectations of increasing production heat up, and the Bank of Japan remained silent in the energy market. In the energy market, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will no longer support production cuts and price guarantees, suggesting it will turn to a production increase strategy. This move marks a shift in OPEC+ policy and may reshape the global crude oil landscape. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, but lowered GDP growth forecasts for fiscal 2025-2026 to 0.5% and 0.7%, reflecting concerns about the spillover effects of US tariff policies.

The above content is all about "[AvaTreade]: The non-agricultural accident performance is strong, and the Federal Reserve is expected to sing a counter-tweet with Trump!". It is carefully www.avatradescn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

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