US dollar index fluctuates higher, US labor data weak and consumer confidence sluggish

On April 30, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.18. On Tuesday, supported by hopes of the U.S. trade agreement, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated higher, returning to above the 99 mark, and finally closed up 0.28% to 99.21. U.S. Treasury yields plummeted after poor performance in U.S. economic data, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.181%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.656%. As risk aversion sentiment cooled down, spot gold fell back and fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.81% at $3,317.25 per ounce. Spot silver rose first and then fell, and the US market gave up all the gains in the day, and finally closed down 0.69% at $32.93 per ounce. International crude oil plummeted as signs of pressure on U.S. economic data hit demand outlook. WTI crude oil fell continuously, breaking the 61 and 60 marks in succession, and finally closed down 2.84% to $59.93 per barrel, hitting a new low in the past three weeks; Brent crude oil closed down 2.48% to $63 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.18. A modest gain was shown Tuesday after weak labor market and consumer confidence data raised expectations of policy easing. Despite strong trade headlines and stock markets, the index remains under pressure. Technically, the most recent support level of the US dollar index is in the range of 98.80–99.00. A break below the 98.80 level will push the U.S. dollar index to the next support level 97.50–97.70.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1391. The dollar fell slightly against the euro as U.S. economic data was lower than expected. German economic data and the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) report for March will be the focus later on Wednesday. Technically, if the euro/dollar climbs above the 1.1400 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.1450–1.1470. In support, a break below 1.1350 will open the way to test the support level of 1.1275–1.1290.

Euro: As of press timehttps://www.avatradescn.com, the pound/dollar hovered around 1.3406. Investor confidence appears to have improved as U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply after posting lower-than-expected data, which could prompt the Fed to adopt a looser policy. Job vacancies and labor flow survey (JOLTS) data in March showed job openings dropped to since September last year The lowest level of the labour demand indicates weak labour demand. Vacancy dropped from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, below the expected 7.5 million. Meanwhile, the Conference www.avatradescn.committee (CB) fell to its lowest point in nearly five years in April, with confidence falling from 93.9 to 86.0, below the expected 87.5. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above the 1.3420 level, it will move to the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500. The RSI is in a moderate area and there is enough room for additional upward momentum in the near term.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1)Gold market trend analysis

Which trading was held in Asia, gold trading was around 3323.23. The precious metal fell slightly due to ease of trade tensions and improved global market risk sentiment. Traders will pay attention to changes in the U.S. ADP employment, personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) and preliminary first-quarter GDP reports, which will be released later on Wednesday.

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices is still intact, but in the past five trading days, gold has consolidated in the range of $3260 to $3386, failing to break through the $3200 or $3400 mark. According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), momentum remains bullish, but the slope of the index is decreasing towards the neutral line. This shows that neither the buyer nor the seller dominates. If gold falls below $3300, the next support will be the April 23 low of $3260, followed by $3200. Conversely, if gold breaks through $3400, the next resistance will be $3450, followed by an all-time high of $3500.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 59.98. International oil prices encountered "Black Tuesday", with Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both falling more than 2.5%, setting the lowest closing price in two weeks. The market continues to pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations, and US Treasury Secretary Bescent said that no trade agreement will be reached until Trump announces it. In addition, Trump needs to approve 18 key trade agreements and he is participating in relevant negotiations.

Technical: Because traders are worried that the trade war will damage oil demand. If WTI crude oil closes below $60.00, it will move towards the next support level of $57.50 to $58.00.

Forex market trading reminder on April 30, 2025

09:30 China's April official manufacturing PMI

09:30 Australia's first quarter CPI annual rate

09:30 Australia's March weighted CPI annual rate

09:45 China's April Caixin Manufacturing PMI

13:30 France's first quarter GDP Annual rate initial value

14:00 UK April Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate

14:45 France April CPI Monthly Rate

15:00 Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator

15:55 Germany April Seasonally Adjusted Unemployed and Unemployment Rate

16:00 Germany first quarterly Unadjusted Annual Rate

1 6:00 Switzerland April ZEW Investor Confidence Index

17:00 Eurozone First Quarter GDP Annual Rate Initial Value

20:00 Germany April CPI Monthly Rate Initial Value

20:15 US April ADP Employment Number

20:30 Canada February GDP Monthly Rate

20:30 US First Quarterly Labor Cost Index Quarterly Rate

20 :30 US GDP and PCE annualized quarterly rate in the first quarter

20:30 US Treasury Department released quarterly refinancing statement

21:45 US April Chicago PMI (Golden Ten Data APP)

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